Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Corbett vs. a Rohrer write-in

I came across this question posed by Vonne Andring at Conservative Declaration:

Highly controversial has become the idea of a Sam Rohrer write-in this November. On one side are staunch party supporters that insist we must have a Republican in the Governor’s mansion–even if it’s Tom Corbett. They say, “vote for Corbett, the lesser of two evils” because a write-in campaign would split the Republican ticket potentially resulting in a win for the Democrats. They say a write-in for Rohrer does more harm than good.

On the other side of the issue, are loyal Sam Rohrer supporters who are invigorated and energized by the movement his message set into motion. These folks say they are done voting for the lesser of two evils, and that if they can write-in Rohrer, there exists no rationale for choosing between evils. They say they’re voting their conscience, and at the same time sending a powerful message to the Republican Party hi-jackers. This group feels they are taking a stand that is necessary and valuable even if the result is a win for the Democrats. This side feels a write-in for Rohrer will do more good than harm.

What’s your opinion?

I left the following reply as a comment over there, but I also thought it was good enough to share here.

Here's the cold hard fact that matters: Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato are the two major party nominees, and one of them is going to be the next governor of Pennsylvania.

Suppose, somehow, 1,000,000 PA conservatives are persuaded to turn out and write in Rohrer. What do you think the probability of that is?
Now guess what? You're still 600,000 votes shy of what Lynn Swann got in 2006, and he lost to Rendell big time.

And so voting for Rohrer out as a viable electoral strategy. So we're back to a choice between Corbett and Onorato as to who we realistically want to win.

If you're a South Park fan, you might recall this episode. And you might say at first that you're facing a similar choice in PA this year.

Stop and think about it, though. You really don't think Corbett is going to make "conservative" choices much more often than Onorato?

Yes, Corbett can be thin-skinned. Yes, he's made an idiotic comment or two about a living Constitution. Yes, Jim Cawley isn't any conservative's first choice as Lt. Governor.

None of that should sway your choice when you compare Corbett, who without prompting can name nearly a dozen taxes he'd like to reduce or repeal, with Onorato, who's never met a tax he didn't like.

Onorato, who's got all the principle and concern for the citizens of this fine Commonwealth that his patron Ed Rendell has.

Onorato, who's been actively evading the constitutional requirement of an Allegheny County property reassessment for the past 5 years.

Remember who your choices are.

It's great to see all the conservative energy behind Rohrer, and we can all wish that he'd won the primary, but that's over.

That energy needs to be channeled into things like getting the better nominees elected this fall, and rebuilding the local party organizations from within, via becoming precinct committeemen and other means. Let's not waste it on an effort that's going to fail.

Sam Rohrer's by all accounts a decent person and he's got a great future as a PA conservative leader. It's time for him to rest up for his next big fight, however.
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